Sri Lanka Army chief Lt. Gen. Sarath Fonseka this week again revised his timetable for defeating the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam; to mid-2009, from an earlier estimate of June 2008. Saying that the LTTE had lost its conventional fighting capacity, he told international correspondents Monday that, within a year, most of the remaining Tigers would be dead. Saying that the objective of the LTTE was to capture the entire island and wipe out the majority Sinhalese community, he vowed: "we will not allow that at any cost, we will fight them."Lt. Gen. Fonseka made his comments, which were carried in reports by AFP, Reuters, the BBC, IANS and The Hindu, amongst others, to the Colombo-based Foreign Correspondents Association on Monday.
The Tigers would be reduced to nothing more than a “rag-tag terrorist outfit” in a year’s time, the Army chief said, in response to questions on the assertion he made in December last year that the military would “wipe out” the LTTE by June 2008.
The Sri Lankan government had earlier revised that deadline to a new one of the year’s end.
The BBC said the timescale is important because President Mahinda Rajapaksa's popular support is largely based on his claim he can militarily defeat the Tamil Tigers and thereby bring peace to Sri Lanka.
Moreover, the Army chief’s comments come two months after one of Sri Lanka’s most celebrated Army officers criticized the Rajapakse government’s war strategy.
Saying that the government’s self-imposed deadlines “were not realistic”, Maj Gen. (retd) Janaka Perera questioned the wisdom of waging protracted war against the LTTE and warned that battle fatigue would set in and sap the military’s will to fight.
Maj. Gen. (retd) Perera also questioned the veracity of the massive claims of LTTE casualties being made by the defence establishment.
Lt. Gen. Fonseka insisted Monday that the government was on its way to destroying the LTTE, which he said was “wilting.”
"From about the beginning of the year, the LTTE has lost its conventional capability," Fonseka told Colombo-based foreign correspondents. "They are no longer fighting as a conventional army."
"You can see they are weakening. They don't have the same capacity and the willpower to fight now," he said.
"We have already defeated them (as a conventional army). They have lost that capability. Although they are fighting with us, it is not in the same manner."
"I'm sure in...less than one year, the LTTE will totally lose even their present territory. Then they will resort to totally different type of tactics."
"They should not be able to maintain their present control over the population, to be able to resist the army in the way they are resisting now. They would have to lose all that capability."
Lt. Gen. Fonseka said the military had killed over 9,000 Tigers since August 2006 and had gained much territory. He said 1,700 soldiers had also died, but that LTTE resistance was crumbling.
Asked about the present LTTE strength, Lt. Gen. Fonseka said: “as per the intelligence reports, the current cadre of the LTTE in the worst-case scenario is 5,000.”
“Most of the new recruits in the past two years are underage conscripts,” he said.
The Army chief’s comments contradicted the US State Department’s 2007 Human Rights report which suggested: “by year end most sources indicated that the ‘one family, one fighter’ policy targeted those 18 years or older. The UNICEF noted a significant reduction in reported child recruitment by the LTTE. … the trend indicated that the LTTE was eliminating the recruitment and use of child soldiers.”
The Army Chief admitted that previous military estimates of the Tiger strength had been too low. Lt. Gen. Fonseka was quoted by state media in December as saying there were only 3,000 Tigers left.
Claiming that government troops fighting the LTTE in the Vanni jungles over the past one year had become “one of the best jungle fighters in the world,” Fonseka said his men “are now working on the overall plan of completely defeating the LTTE militarily,” not just capturing fresh territories.
'We do not just go for terrains, but we go for the kill. This is the difference between the military operations in the past and the present,' he said.
He added that the military had got 'the right guidance and leadership' from President Mahinda Rajapaksa and his government. Fonseka was named the army chief in December 2005, a month after Rajapaksa took power.
“Even if the army finished the war and captured the whole of north, the LTTE still might survive as long as there are people who believe in Tamil nationalism and with Tamil diaspora who are supporting them.”
“The LTTE might survive another even two decades with about 1,000 cadres. But we will not be fighting in the same manner. It might continue as an insurgency forever.”
The Tamil Tigers have not commented directly on Gen Fonseka's claims to have defeated them as a conventional force.
But earlier they rubbished the military's reports of battlefield successes and said the casualty figures being put out by the government were false, intended to retain support for the war in the Sinhala south, the BBC reported.
Lt. Gen. Fonseka’s upbeat reading of Sri Lanka’s war progress comes as spiraling inflation (28% up from last year) is starting to erode at hitherto very strong support amongst the majority Sinhalese for the military destruction of the LTTE.
The governor of the Central Bank, Ajith Nivard Cabraal, told the BBC the main reason for high inflation in Sri Lanka was the global rise in oil prices, combined with the government reducing fuel subsidies.
In an interview to The Sunday Leader newspaper on March 16 this year, retired Army General Janaka Perera pointed out that though military offensives against LTTE-held Vanni began in July 2007, there had been little tangible progress.
“If [the fighting] drags on and spreads over a year, the soldier suffers both mental fatigue and physical exhaustion. Both these factors combined with his home problems are going to impact on him. If he continues to remain in the battlefront, it is difficult to get the quality of a focused soldier from a fatigued and pressurised man,” Maj. Gen. Perera said.
Lt. Gen. Fonseka admitted the fighting had been intense in Mannar, which the government claimed to have captured entirely on Sunday – and which was later contradicted by the military spokesman.
“It took nine months to capture Mannar district, the so called ‘rice bowl’. The terrain was open and for two months it was flooded,” he explained.
Meanwhile, last week the Army launched a campaign to track down and arrest up to 12,000 deserters who failed to take advantage of a government amnesty – about 5,000 returned in the month long amnesty in May.
Sri Lanka’s armed forces officially number over 200,000.
In recent weeks, there have been persistent reports of low morale, especially amongst young recruits in Jaffna amongst whom several suspected suicides have been reported.
According to the Maj. Gen. Perera, the LTTE is engaged in a protracted campaign: “the LTTE’s strategy is to drag it on and play for time. Delays work in their favour.”
“Just put yourself into the soldier’s position. You don’t see a tangible goal being achieved making things really tough. Then you lose concentration and the will to fight.”
“Come September, the northeast monsoon will set in. Then, added to the physical and mental exhaustion, the weather will also conspire to keep the troops down. That means, the sick rates will go up with malaria and fever attacks,” he said.
“It is going to be a nightmare if the war drags on.”
The authorities in charge of the security in the island have taken a series of steps by to beef up security arrangements for the 15th SAARC conference to be held at the Bandaranaike Memorial International Conference Hall (BMICH), Colombo, from July 27 to August 03 this year.
By Ranga Jayasuriya
base, which functioned as the main launching pad of the sea Tigers in the north western coast.
the Vedithalthivu base were impregnable for the moment. Yet, on July 3, three small groups of four -man commando teams shattered the perceived impregnability of the camp. This swift assault during which four commandos lost lives had been a turn around in the battle for Vedithalthivu. The capture of about 200 meters of the southern perimeter defence of the camp killing at least 28 cadres- according to figures provided by the Army- had been the prelude to a series of daring small group operations which were to dominate the Mannar front during the last two weeks.
