13 Tamils arrested in search

Thirteen Tamil nationals were arrested on suspicion during a combined police and army search of Mount Lavinia and Moratuwa areas yesterday night (May 01st).

The suspects are said to be residents of Jaffna, who were being employed in the areas from where they were arrested.

However, police say that some of them had failed to furnish clear reasons for their stay, while the others had no proper identification documents.

EU asks Ranil for detailed report on Pillayan Group

Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe has been asked by the European Union to furnish a detailed report about the Pillayan Group.

Speaking at an election rally in Trincomalee on April 29th,
Mr. Wickremesinghe said he would hold lengthy discussions on the matter with the EU next month.

The Pillayan Group also came up at the recent meeting of the International Democratic Union in Australia, and it was decided to refer the matter to the Inter Parliamentary Union, he said.

Mr. Wickremesinghe alleged the government and the armed Pillayan Group were preparing for a massive vote rigging at the May 10th Eastern Provincial Council polls.

He warned that both would suffer due to their undemocratic, unlawful actions.

New party with Weerawansa in May - Nandana Gunatillake

Describing yesterday night’s (May 02nd) discussion with JVP dissident MP Wimal Weerawansa as a success, independently functioning party legislator Nandana Gunatillake said that they would form a new political party in the near future.

The new political movement will also include those who have left the JVP in dejection, and that doors were open for any would-be deserter as well, Mr. Gunatilake said.

Speaking to ‘Lanka Dissent’ regarding his talks with Mr. Weerawansa, the JVP MP said that the new movement would be launched this month.

The new party would be registered with the Elections Commissioner after May 10th, he added.

Working class struggle to prevent bombings - Bala Tampoe

Secretary of the Ceylon Mercantile Union Bala Tampoe has called for a struggle by the working class to demand the LTTE and the government to immediate halt their bombing attacks.

He said the country was facing Tiger terrorism as well as state terrorism of Mahinda Rajapaksa, and added that the LTTE's bomb attacks as well as the government's aerial bombing of the north should end.

Speaking at a May Day rally in Colombo yesterday (May 01st), Mr. Tampoe said the government should take steps without delay to cut down on its wasteful expenditure, eliminate corruption and spend the massive amount of money being wasted on the meaningless war for the welfare of the working people.


The event was organized by the Joint Trade Union Alliance, which has its membership in the CMU, the United Labour Union, the Lanka Bank Employees Union, the Republican Health Services Union and the Movement against Media Repression.

Their May Day procession began from the CMU headquarters at Colpetty and culminated at Hyde Park where the rally was held.

Security Threats Facing India: External and Internal

by A. K. Verma

Threats are a matter of perception. Their assessments take into account capacities, not so much intentions, of a potential adversary. For an accurate reading, the short term and long term objectives of all leading players in the world have to be judged.

Applying this criterion will reveal that India is living in an environment of threat from many corners of the earth.

Is there a threat from the United States? To answer the question one must first identify the basic interests of the US and then examine whether similar interests of India are supplementary or contradictory to those of the US. An objective study will lead to the conclusion whether the relation ship between the two countries is essentially benevolent or malignant.

The broad national interests of the US can be summed as the following:

1. Geopolitical containment of Russia and China.

2. Nonproliferation.

3. Countering and eradicating Islamism or radical Islam.

4. Maintaining access to and dominating control of energy sources

In each of these areas the US is seeking to co-opt India as a junior partner. Since Indian interests do not necessarily dovetail into those of the US, a potential collision lurks in the background.

US possibly views China as the single most potent long term threat to its continued domination of the world. It is, therefore, presently engaged in building coalitions to hamstring it from all directions. The US wants to develop India as an ally in this effort. Although India has its own fundamental differences with China, these do not go to the extent that it should play any role in the US strategy. An implicit threat in the relationship thus emerges.

Non proliferation has been an article of faith with all recent US administrations that have been deeply unhappy with the Indian nuclear weapons programme. They want this programme to be capped, rolled back and eliminated. There have been some studies, commissioned by neo cons in the US, which have even suggested that it could be bombed out. A war was launched against Iraq, under the guise of dismantling its non existent WMDs (Weapons of Mass Destruction). Today, the dominant view in the neo con circles in Washington DC favours aerial strikes against Iran to knock its nuclear facilities to eradicate a possible nuclear programme. How can one assume that the Indian programme, if it is resumed, will forever remain unthreatened?

The US war on Islamism, fought in the name of terrorism, has brought NATO, one suspects, as a permanent presence in Afghanistan. For the US it also serves the collateral purpose of offering a checkmate to China. This war seems to be leading to a gradual polarization of the world into Islamic and non Islamic and could indeed set in a clash of civilizations. The impact of such a development on South Asia will be devastating. Afghanistan is already deeply radicalized. If anti American sentiment can be treated as an index to measure propensity towards radicalism, Pakistan is also affected. A radical fringe can now be identified in India also. The US policies on issues relating to Islam have, thus, a potential for destabilization of communal harmony in South Asia.

A resurgent Russia has put paid to US energy related ambitions in the Central Asian Republics but in the energy belt in West Asia, the latter remains dominant. The American enterprise in Iraq was propelled actually by a desire to strengthen this domination. There is an American effort now to block the growth of Iranian gas and oil markets. Indian oil energy needs to the extent of 70% are met from foreign sources. This requirement is expected to rise to 90% at not too distant a date. The US frowns at possibilities of expansion of India Iran linkages in this sector. In today’s world energy security is needed to reach human developmental goals and economic prosperity. But US eyes it as a strategic weapon. A conflictual environment is, thus, already created.

While all that stated above does not amount to a totality of adverse relations, it is necessary not to ignore these factors while determining policy in India. One should not forget the abiding security dictum: there are only permanent interests, no permanent friends. Further, the ‘transformational diplomacy’ of the Neocons aims at converting nation states into American clones.

In the field of external relations two other countries stand out, meriting continuous scrutiny and caution, China and Pakistan. Unlike the US, there have been violent ups and downs in India’s relationship with them. One, therefore, must attempt to discover what the core problems are.

Looking at China first, its core concern is maintaining its integrity, territorial or otherwise, while it moves dynamically forward to build up its economic, political and military strengths. It seems to it that its strongest challenges will emanate from the US, seen to be encircling it from all directions with the help of its allies, and wanting to force a democratic wave within China, also targeting for loosening of its hold over Tibet and Xinjiang. In the game of diplomatic chess that has emerged China wants to ensure that no lending hand is given to the US by India. It seeks to achieve this objective by keeping India off balance. It has developed Pakistan as its Israel against India, extending nuclear and missile technology, all directed 100% against India. More than collaboration with the US, China fears India over the possible roles it can play around Tibet. As long as fires of Tibetan nationalism burn in Tibet and a diaspora of over 100,000 Tibetans, mostly well educated and politically aware, with Dalai Lama providing a focus, shelter in India, China will view India with grave suspicions. There is no way by which India can succeed in removing such mistrust from the Chinese mind.

While the resulting state of unease may not lead to a war as in 1962, it certainly blocks progress on the border settlement and withdrawal of territorial claims such as over Arunachal Pradesh and. Aksaichin. As of today, one may not be off the mark to state that China India relationship will remain a hostage to China’s crisis with Tibet.

The threat from Pakistan is altogether of a different kind. It is not an exaggeration to say that this threat commenced from the day Pakistan came into existence. It was inherent in the two nation theory, propounded anywhere in the world for the first time, to divide a multi-religious and multi-cultural nation, on a religious basis. An impossible task had been attempted, considering the size of India and its population, religion wise.

The attempt succeeded in carving out a religious majority area, already existing, as a new nation, but the rump India still remained a many layered multi-religious and multi-cultural society. The two nation theory encouraged Pakistan to lay a claim over J&K State. Beginning with tribal incursions of late 1947, Pakistan has fought several wars to wrest the state out of Indian control. A proxy war continues even today.

This continued quest has completely reoriented the psyche of Pakistani people and re-aligned all instruments of governance and policy- making in Pakistan against India. The text books in schools and colleges, the entire military doctrine and the entire focus of its nuclear weapon development program is centered against India. The ruling establishment in Pakistan has had to rely more and more on Islam and ‘Islampasand’ parties to keep the nation under its control. Islam is now so deeply embedded in the corridors of power that none in Pakistan can ignore the Islamic perspective. From the Pakistani view point there is no solution to the Kashmir question other than its amalgamation into Pakistan, a position which India can never accept, since any such scenario can ignite a chain reaction of separation in India. The problems between India and Pakistan will thus, remain insoluble, until Pakistan modifies its commitment to two nation theory. The prospects for such a change are absolutely minimal, because demolition of two nation theory means that Pakistan looses its raison-de-etre.

The Pakistani designs against India have created a vast range of threats. Almost all movements within the country, agitating against the centre for political reasons have received support by way of finances, training, arms, guidance and shelter from Pakistani intelligence, ISI. Within Pakistan itself Islamist groups have been created or supported by ISI for sabotage, subversion and terrorism in India. ISI with its surrogate Wahabi groups is now targeting Indian Muslims to get them involved in questionable activities. Whilst under US pressure Pakistan has somewhat relented on its support to Islamic radicals operating against the US, it has abstained from a similar downsizing of its activities against India.

What may one expect from the new configuration in Pakistan after the recent elections? There is no evidence yet that key changes are in the offing. The President retains all his powers as of old. He derives his strength from the military which, while it seems to have moved backstage, has not shed any substantive power. A new era will not dawn in Pakistan until the military is truly confined to the barracks. Till that happens, perceptions of threats from Pakistan must remain as before.

On India’s borders exist other failed or failing states which create deep security concerns. Recent (10.04.08) elections to the Constituent Assembly (CA) in Nepal have pitch forked the Maoists in the leadership position for the first time for government formation. Their immediate objectives in the foreseeable future can be expected to be consolidation and management of CA deliberations to facilitate their smooth assimilation with polity and power in Nepal. Externally, their objectives will to redefine Nepal’s relations with neighbours and other powers. Inevitablly it will mean loss of India’s pre-eminent position in Nepal, with scrapping of mutual privileges. Covert support to Indian Maoists had not been on their agenda in the past and is not likely to be there in future while the process of consolidation is on. But transformation is never without some turbulence and hiccups. As they arise, they will need to be settled with foresight and patience.

Unease with Bangladesh is not likely to end as their response on two major Indian security concerns remain negative, illegal infiltration into India and promotion of cross border terrorism. Bangladesh’s asymmetry with India and its extreme sense of inferiority vis-à-vis India contribute in a big way to these problems. The demographic aggression is a direct result of the pathetic poverty of Bangladesh. Infiltration has significantly altered the population patterns in the border areas of India and constitutes a long-term risk. The Bangladesh situation calls for a holistic approach from India, combining a compassionate approach to help in its developmental objectives with firmness where security gets compromised.

In Srilanka, India is caught between the devil and the deep sea. The best solution for the crisis there would have been autonomy to Tamils in the North East provinces in a federal setup with a guaranteed and substantive devolution of power between the provinces and the centre. The moment seems to have been missed and Srilanka appears to be seeking a military option. India is left painted in a corner, unable to take any initiative on behalf of either side. After Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination, public opinion in India is not very sympathetic towards the LTTE but if misfortune continuously chases Srilankan Tamils, there will be calls to come out with a response.

The internal scene in India is also not free from anxiety on the threat front. Growth of Naxalism has been declared by the Prime minister to be the top internal security problem of the country.

Roots of Naxalism, now known as Maoism, predate independence and now affect about 150 districts spread over 13 states. It has grown to this strength on account of cumulative wrongs, absence of social and eco reforms to ensure human dignity, justice and democratic rights to the rural and forest tribal populations of the country. The movement is seeking to establish a contiguous area from Karnataka to Nepal border to set up a compact revolutionary zone and is now well militarized. It will be a mistake to think that the movement can be countered by armed means alone. Ways have to be found to include the Maoists in the main stream and to fulfill the rising expectations of the rural and tribal people through better governance and a paradigm shift in administrative and development strategies, to ensure a better delivery.

Subversion is another form of threat the Indian State is facing from several quarters . In J&K it takes the shape of a proxy war led by militant outfits operating from the safety of sanctuaries in Pakistan, at the behest of the Pakistani establishment. Despite the so called peace process between India and Pakistan, the thrust in this assault remains as sharp and purposeful as before. It is expanding and making inroads into the rest of the country. It wants to transmute itself into what has been dubbed as New Terrorism, mindless destruction of lives and property, merely for spectacular results. New Terrorism will employ WMDs if it can lay its hands on them. Its foreign promoters are eyeing the Indian Muslim community as a fertile field for recruitment of agents. The Pakistani masters try to distort faith by sowing concepts that such terrorism is ultimately a service to the wider community. This in turn promotes sectarian tensions. It is not clear whether the dangers inherent in this Pakistani strategy have been fully comprehended or conceptualized in India. The recent Deoband fatwa, outlawing terrorism, while laudable, does not go deep into the question, whether doctrinal injunctions create a mindset disfavouring growth of liberalism which will offset terrorism. The Muslim community in India needs to be encouraged to examine why it remains out of step with contemporaneous concepts and ideas that can ensure such virtues as gender equality, freedom of expression and keeping religion and state out of each other’s way.

The turbulence in the North Eastern states of India is another form of subversion, orchestrated by foreign agencies, notably Pakistani. No doubt the militants in these states, principally Tripura, Assam, Manipur and Nagaland have long standing local grievances but there is an ongoing effort in most cases by the Central Government to deal with these through dialogue and counter insurgency. Cross border connections, guidance, financing and arming often put a spanner into such efforts.

Maoism and foreign subversion pose strong challenges but the idea that is India remains strong. Nobody can say that India is not an admirably successful example of a multi ethnic, multi religious, multi lingual and pluralist entity in motion. However, interplay of politics and corruption and absence of good governance, a must for efficient security, remains a big blot on India’s record and add to the existentialist threats, facing India from various directions.

(The author can be reached at e-mail:verma_anandkumar@yahoo.com)

US Country Report accuses GoSL, LTTE for terrorist activities

Noting that in South and Central Asia, "[t]errorism remained a serious problem in the region, directly and indirectly threatening American interests and lives," the Country Reports on Terrorism 2007, released by the US Department of State Wednesday, blamed the Government of Sri Lanka and the Liberation Tigers for terrorist activities saying, "[t]he LTTE reverted to targeting civilians in bus bombings and claymore mine attacks, while the government used anti-LTTE paramilitaries to terrorize citizens suspected of having ties to the Tigers."

"Increasingly, South and Central Asian terrorists expanded their operations and networks across the region and beyond. To varying degrees, U.S. cooperation with regional partners on counterterrorism issues continued to increase, but much is left to be accomplished," the report added.

"In Sri Lanka, both the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) and the government engaged in numerous violations of the 2002 Cease-fire Agreement that left more than 5,000 people dead since hostilities started again in 2006. The LTTE reverted to targeting civilians in bus bombings and claymore mine attacks, while the government used anti-LTTE paramilitaries to terrorize citizens suspected of having ties to the Tigers. Both the LTTE and armed groups allied to the government engaged in wide-spread human rights abuses including extra-judicial killings, abductions, and extortion," the U.S. report said.

External Links:

US:

Country Reports on Terrorism 2007

Here is China's master plan

In the old days, the handful of foreign journalists in Beijing would scour People's Daily and other such fonts of wisdom for clues as to what was really going on. Historians are still working out the extent to which my predecessors got it right.

China is happy to welcome the Dalai Lama back as a religious leader

The key was not to look at the headline or the first few paragraphs. It was Zhou Enlai, I read once, who told a western journalist that the real story would be in the few sentences towards the end that didn't chime with the rest of the upbeat, ra-ra news story. (One curious feature about those times is that though China was much more closed than it is now, its leaders were much more open. Zhou, who had been educated in Paris after all, would happily chat to journalists in the Great Hall of the People in Chinese - or English or French).

That sort of China-watching has gone out of fasion, and maybe for good reason. We can travel and see things on the ground, after all, which is much more interesting than whether some politburo member is up or down in the rankings.

On the other hand, the world is entitled to know something about what's going on in the minds of the leadership about Tibet, I think.

So here, following my allegation the other day of a possible master plan, is how it might work, if we scrutinise some of the state media.

Take the Xinhua story I mentioned yesterday. Actually, I misled you - it's more important than a Xinhua story, it's a People's Daily commentary picked up and highlighted.

Once again, it insists that the issue in Tibet is not religion. (You will remember that I previously pointed out how Hu Jintao said this, contradicting his ambassador to London, who had said in the Sunday Telegraph that there was a religious element to the protests which complicated matters).

The piece then goes on to describe all the wonderful religious developments in Tibet over the years, yadda yadda. So we know all that already. But it concludes:

"The above facts have showed explicitly the Tibet issue was not about religion but only a card played by the Dalai clique to woo sympathy from others, the commentary said. The essence of the Tibet issue was a scheme for "Tibet independence" and this couldn't be disguised as a religious problem, it stressed."

Sounds bad - but what it means is, the issue here is politics, we don't care about the religion, thus reiterating by absence the longstanding position that they have no problem with the Dalai Lama as a purely religious figurehead (their attitude to the Pope, of course).

Today, we have a long story, appearing out of nowhere, on page 5 of China Daily. We normally take what China Daily says with a pinch of salt but it is still used by the Chinese government to send a message to foreign embassies and journalists.

It says "Tibet 'government' a theocratic power", and is based on an interview with a Chinese Tibetologist analysing the set-up of the Tibetan government-in-exile and the Dalai Lama's role in it.

Its central thesis is that while the institutions of government seem to be functional and observe a division of powers, the role of the Dalai Lama, a religious figure, and his relatives is central.

So what? Well, the first two things to notice are that the state media don't normally pay a lot of attention to the Tibet government-in-exile, which after all is recognised by virtually no-one.

The second is that throughout the Dalai Lama is referred to respectfully as "the Dalai Lama" - not "the Dalai clique" or, which Tibetans also find insulting, just "Dalai".

In an accompanying note reporting the foreign ministry spokesman's demand that the Dalai Lama will be constructive in forthcoming talks, again the reference is to the "Dalai side", not the Dalai clique.

So why this emphasis on religion, and where it does and shouldn't play a role? The answer to me is pretty obvious (if there is a genuine question at all, and I accept I may be making all of this up).

This is the outline of what the Chinese are offering as their basis for talks: China is happy to welcome the Dalai Lama back as a religious leader, but as a religious leader, he has no role in politics in a modern society.

This may not be too surprising. The Chinese would always have been happy if the Dalai Lama had stuck to his palace and his monasteries, letting the Chinese government and its Lhasa representatives get on with running the country properly. (But then, if Mao had been running Tibet properly, 1959 might never have happened either...)

But it clearly raises the question of whether the government really is going to be insisting on pre-vetting reincarnation and all that, in any talks on the future.

Is it workable as a basis for talks? The Dalai Lama's demand for cultural autonomy goes well beyond just allowing the monasteries to do what they like, but I wonder how much he would demand a role in the actual day-to-day government of Tibet were he ever to be allowed to return. There is clearly a gap to be narrowed, but the gap is now identifiable.

The big issue, it seems to me, apart from the guarantees that would be required on either side, is exactly what CCT was hinting at in his comment to my post the other day. It is a question of ordinary Tibetans versus the current local leadership (I would say that includes ethnic Han leaders as well as ethnic Tibetan ones, but I agree in general terms).

It is the local leaders who have most to lose in any settlement, yet I cannot see how many hostile local lay-people, to say nothing of the radical exiles, many of whom have never lived under Chinese rule, would accept any settlement that forces them to live under the same power structure as now. At least in India they have freedom of speech.

But there's the starting position, in my view. Any takers on how others will read it?

One final little point. Students of China-Iran relations, and I am not really one of them, sometimes ask how well the two actually get on, underneath all the oil deals. The hostile description of the Dalai Lama's role in the Tibet government-in-exile rather exactly matches the set-up of the Iranian government - the form of a modern state, but with a religous leader and his unelected fellows having the final say in everything.

I wonder how Beijing's friends in Teheran view the description of theocratic power as "medieval" and "ridiculous".

No media suppression during Premadasa regime - Ranil

UNP leader Ranil Wickremasinghe today questioned the silence of the media in the face of gross media rights violations and maintained the media enjoyed full media freedom during the Premadasa regime.
Meanwhile he has called for a political solution that devolves powers and is acceptable to the Sinhala, Tamil and Muslim communities as means to end the war.

The UNP has unveiled its political solutions for the resolution of the national conflict, he said, adding that on the contrary, the government was yet to submit its proposals.

Instead of presenting its solution, the present regime is preparing to rob the votes of the eastern people, Mr. Wickremesinghe told his party's election rallies in Trincomalee and Kinniya.


The people of the east should decide their future, he noted, adding that the UNP was very clear in its stance with regard to the province.

The UNP and the SLMC have joined forces for the May 10th provincial council elections for the east.

Speaking further, Mr. Wickremesinghe said, "We are contesting the eastern provincial council to ensure a democratic society that protects self dignity and is free of fear and suspicion of armed groups. We will support if the Pillayan Group disarms and becomes a democratic political party. But, we oppose if they enter politics with arms. Also, it is the government's responsibility to protect the Pillayan Group if it disarms itself."


"The UN is against the government's union with the Pillayan Group. The US government has also called for the disarming of the group. Europe, Japan and other countries are taking the same stand. If the government fails to act accordingly, these countries will not grant us any aid," he said.

"If the Pillayan Group resorts to violence, the UNP will take strong action against it. We will do our maximum locally and internationally against these armed groups. If the Pillayan Group points its guns at the people, I can make serious trouble for the government and this group. I dare them to show the power of the gun," Mr. Wickremesinghe added.

TMVP threatens UNP campaigners in B'caloa

The Election Incidents Monitoring Unit of the United Nation Party Central Bureau has reported yet another election-related violent incident from the Kalkudah electorate in Batticaloa.

The Bureau has notified the Commissioner of Elections, the IGP, the DIG (Elections) and DIG (Batticaloa) of the incident, pursuant to a complaint by the party's Provincial Councilor K. Velauthan.

In his complaint, Mr. Velauthan says he was involved in campaigning activities for the UNP candidate Mr. A. Jegan, with Mr. Kithsiri Fernando today (April 30th), when their vehicles were obstructed and stopped at Karuwalkerni by Ajith, a member of the TMVP, who threatened them at gunpoint.

The TMVP cadre had come in a white Town Ace van bearing the registration number HN 2480 (EP), the complaint said.

While proceeding after the incident, the UNP campaigners were again surrounded by TMVP members on bicycles and motorcycles.

Due to these encounters, the UNP members were forced to abandon the campaign activities and turn back.

On the way to lodge a complaint with the Valachchenai Police, Ajith of the TMVP has telephoned A. Jegan and threatened to kill him.

The letter by the UNP Election Incidents Monitoring Unit requests authorities to take action against Ajith and other armed TMVP members as well as allow the party free campaigning.

Claymore blast kills 2 STF

A LTTE claymore mine explosion killed two officers of the police Special Task Force in Kebithigollewa this morning (May 01st), the Media Centre for National Security said.

They had been clearing an area between two bunkers at Dutuwewas around 7.10 when the attack was carried out, the MCNS said.

Subsequent to the explosion, a firefight broke out between the STF and the LTTE, in which two Tiger cadres were killed.

Their bodies and a T-56 rifle were found from the scene of fighting later, the MCNS added.

Somawansa sues Swarnawahini

Colombo District Court fixed July 14 to hear a case filed by JVP leader Somawansa Amarasinghe against Swarnawahini for using a part of a speech made by him on a political platform for a TV commercial without his consent.

Mr. Amarasinghe has filed the case against Swarnawahini for creating a commercial for a political party utilizing a statement made by him that the security forces should be dissolved.

District Judge Sisira Rathnayaka considered the petition yesterday (30).