Hillary Clinton should hold that pose...
Does she really have a chance? It's still very hard to map out a scenario for her securing the Democratic nomination. And there’s no Clinton supporter on earth who would not gladly swap positions with Barack Obama at the moment. She’s still facing “the math” and the reality that she has a must-win state tomorrow – Indiana – that is finely balanced in opinion polls. But she’s still in the race and probably will be until after June 3rd. So here are 10 reasons for Hillary Clinton to be cheerful.
1. Even Obama himself concedes that he’s been successfully painted as an elitist. This can be the kiss of death in American politics – just ask Michael Dukakis or John Kerry.
2. The fact that Hillary has stayed in the race when so many have counted her out is in itself becoming a big plus for many voters. Again and again I heard today things like “She’s fought so hard for herself it shows how hard she can fight for the country and we need a fighter.”
3. Obama is still seen by many as a somewhat exotic creature with a shady background. Once again, someone at a Hillary event today told me that he was a Muslim. Others are concerned about the Reverend Jeremiah Wright’s ravings. Of course, it’s kind of weird (and of immense frustration to Obamaphiles) that white working class voters can simultaneously think he’s a Muslim and have a nutty Christian pastor but politics isn’t always logical. In the eyes of many, there’s a vague question about Obama’s associations and his patriotism – and that can be toxic.
4. There’s a slight sense from Obama that he’s a touch bored by this whole thing – he thinks he’s already won it and he’s impatient to get on with the general election against John McCain. This is dangerous because it can lead people to think you have a sense of entitlement – which of course was one of Hillary’s initial problems.
5. Hillary seems to be revelling in the role of underdog while Obama is an uncomfortable front runner. Doubts multiply every time there’s a feeling he could have put her away and didn’t.
6. Tuesday’s votes in Indiana and North Carolina – where he has spent a total of $10.5 million to her $6.7 million – will be the test but there are indications that Obama’s money advantage isn’t translating into votes. Pennsylvania is the best example of this so far.
7. Obama is playing defence at the moment. Both candidates are in North Carolina today. There’s no way that was part of Obama’s plan, which was to be so far ahead here that he could concentrate on Indiana, where he can sew up the nomination if he wins.
8. The gas-tax holiday. This has become the signature issue in Indiana and North Carolina. Every economist anyone can find thinks it’s a bad idea, would make no real difference to people and will not happen anyway because Bush is in office. Obama – with justification - has denounced it as a gimmick. And yet gimmicks can play well on the stump. It makes people think that Hillary will do something practical for them whereas with Obama it’s more esoteric and theoretical.
9. Michigan and Florida. These haven’t yet gone away. If Hillary can close the gap in the popular vote then these two states can muddy the waters enough for her to make the case that she won the popular vote. The notion of the popular vote – theoretically irrelevant in a contest designed around primaries, caucuses and delegates – has powerful resonance among Democrats who feel the 2000 election was stolen from Al Gore after he won the popular vote.
10. Polls indicate she might have a prayer of victory in North Carolina, where Bill is campaigning relentlessly and where she has the support of Governor Mike Easley (and Hillary-supporting governors proved crucial in Ohio and Pennsylvania). If she could pull it off here then that would be the kind of game-changing moment that really could shift the psychology of this race. Even if she holds him to a narrow victory – say under five or even under 10 per cent that could be spun as a major upset.
By every practical measure, Hillary Clinton still has a mountain to climb. But alongside all the good reasons why Obama advisers think they’ve got the nomination in the bag, you can sense there’s a voice gnawing away in their minds that says: “And yet…and yet…maybe she just could.”
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